Which Of The Triple Crown Races Is Easier To Predict? If we are talking about horse racing, we cannot go without mentioning the Triple Crown races. They play an important role in the horse racing industry and act as one of the most prestigious races in the world.
With that said, many horse racing enthusiasts reserve the period when the Triple Crown races are organized to dig deeper into the data and come up with a strategy that will help them predict the winner of each race.
However, picking the winner of each race is very difficult. The best thing about the Triple Crown races is that the favorites don’t play a significant role, and if a horse is picked as a favorite, it doesn’t mean that it will actually win the race.
In fact, in around 30% of the cases, the favorite horse managed to win the race, which is a low percentage considering the long-running tradition of the Triple Crown races.
With that said, many people want to know, which Triple Crown race is easier to predict?
Unfortunately, there isn’t a straight answer to this question, and it all comes down to personal preference, the data available, condensers many other elements that are impossible to measure.
The thing is, each race of the Triple Crown championship is unique, even though they look very similar.
Let’s look at each of the races and find out which one is easier to nail down than the others.
The Preakness Stakes
The Preakness Stakes is the second leg of the triple crown races and is by no means an “easy” race to predict. One of the reasons that make the Preakness Stakes hard to predict is that there are no major juvenile races held at Pimlico, which means that there isn’t enough data to showcase how horses perform on this particular racecourse.
Additionally, the racetrack is known for its notoriously tight turns, which pose an unknown factor for how horses will perform coming to the Preakness gate.
Another important thing to mention is that the Preakness Stakes is organized only two weeks after the Kentucky Derby, which doesn’t leave much time for horses to prepare considering that even top thoroughbred horses need at least a month to rest between high-performance races.
The Belmont Stakes
On the other hand, we have the third leg of the Triple Crown races which is known as the fiercest track in the U.S horse racing calendar. The fact that this race is 1 ½ mile long on a pretty deep dirt surface, makes the Belmont Stakes even harder to predict.
Because of the long distance on dirt, it is very hard to determine a horse’s genetic predisposition on how much stamina it requires in order to finish the race.
This is one of the races where straight-line speed is not as important as keeping the same pace during the entire race. It is also why we’ve seen many times where the leading horse falls short at the finishing straight at the end of the race.
You can visit TwinSpires.com to find out more about the event that happens again on June 11th.
The Kentucky Derby
The Kentucky Derby is the opening race and it is quite simply unique. The Kentucky Derby is not by any means an easy race to predict, but considering all three races from the Triple Crown, the Kentucky Derby provides the most data that you can base your predictions on.
Additionally, being the first leg of the Triple Crown races, most contenders are not tired and have taken the time to rest before the race. This means that each of the horses has the best chance of reaching its full potential during the race.
Lastly, the Kentucky Derby contenders are chosen through a round of qualification races known as “The Road to Kentucky” races. These races can indicate each of the horse’s potential unveiling some of the ones that have the best chance of winning the race.
However, even having all this data at your disposal won’t guarantee that you’ll have the best chance of predicting the winner. If we look at this year’s Kentucky Derby where favorites like Taiba and Epicenter with 5-1 odds fell short, and Rich Strike with 80-1 odds managed to win the Derby, it says a lot about how hard is to predict.